Joe Biden bows out – what comes next and what does this mean for Prime Minister Starmer?

It had seemed inevitable, yet it still came as a huge shock. Shortly before 7pm UK time on Sunday, Joe Biden announced that he would not be standing for re-election in November, and endorsed his Vice President, former California Senator Kamala Harris, as his successor. It is news that will bring joy to some, relief to many, and perhaps hope that Donald Trump can be stopped. But it is an unprecedented moment in American history and the shockwaves will be felt in the short, medium, and long term.  

The Democratic Party now faces an uphill battle. Do they avoid the infighting and spectacle of an open convention in Chicago next month, and anoint Kamala Harris as the Presidential Candidate, potentially the first female, and first Asian-American president of the United States? It may be the easiest option, but it could lead to allegations of stich ups and subverting democracy, with Vice President Harris also not a hugely popular figure.  She has already secured enough delegates to become the party nominee and senior Democrats have been lining up to publicly endorse the Vice President.

Once the candidate has been chosen, they face the daunting task of taking on a revitalised Donald Trump. The assassination attempt against him has shaken American politics to its core and united the Republican Party. Trump has never been in such a powerful position to shape the future of American Conservatism, and the early indications are that he plans to maximise his strength. But now one of his most significant arguments has been removed and attention may well be drawn to his own age and suitability for the highest office in the world.  

The consequences are of course most significant for the people of the United States. This is a deeply fractured nation – politically, socially and economically. Each camp regards the other not just as an opponent, but a threat to the very future of the United States. Harris may change some voting dynamics, especially among women, young people and Asian-Americans. Nonetheless, the fundamental divisions within American society are not going away, and everybody knows it.  

For the new British government, the news does not have significant short-term consequences. Harris is closely tied to Biden, and shares most of his politics. But Number 10 were delighted when Biden, unprompted, referred to the “special relationship” between the UK and USA in Starmer’s first phone call with the President after the General Election. Attention will now turn to building relationships with the teams behind Trump and (probably) Harris.  

David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, has already found himself in hot water over past comments about the Republican candidate, with some in government fearing it will make building a relationship with Trump much harder, should he be victorious in November. Labour would naturally be much more comfortable with a Democrat in the White House, but the nature of diplomacy and democracy means that a foreign government cannot interfere in another country’s election (no matter how much Trump himself may not respect this convention).  

The chaos in the United States gives Starmer a chance to appear statesmanlike and present his government as a stable actor amidst the chaos engulfing some of our allies. But having promoted himself as an Atlanticist throughout the past few months, the prospect of Trump returning to the White House, with his criticism of NATO and, to put it mildly, reluctant attitude towards supporting Ukraine, there will be concern about his ability to shape foreign affairs. The Foreign Office will be busy building relationships with Team Harris, and probably hoping she can pull off a miraculous victory. But in an ever more volatile era, the first Labour Government since 2010 has little time to hope for its desired outcome and instead must be ready to react to anything and everything that is thrown at them.