The Lowdown – Local Election Day 2025

This Thursday, the Labour Government faces its first electoral test since coming to power last year through a landslide majority. 1,650 council seats across county councils, unitary authorities, a metropolitan borough, four combined authority mayors, two metropolitan borough mayors, and on the Isles of Scilly are all up for grabs – alongside a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby.

The first real electoral test for Sir Keir Starmer, will be brought by Kemi Badenoch, Ed Davey and, to a lesser extent, Green Party co-leadership – although the key threat comes from an invigorated Nigel Farage. Fielding candidates in a higher number of seats than any other party, Reform have hundreds of council seats in their sights, and mayoralties in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire. The Liberal Democrats will look to hoover up potentially hundreds of Conservative-held council seats, while the Green Party are looking at the West of England Combined Mayoralty and a lesser number of Council seats.

Council Elections

The foundations of these elections are, nevertheless, peculiar. These elections took place at a time when the Conservatives had a strong lead in opinion polls – with current projections looking more subdued to say the least. The Conservatives hold all but one of the County Councils up for election this week, with most, if not all, projected to fall into No Overall Control or opposition control. It is hardly unexpected therefore that Kemi Badenoch started her campaign by declaring that the results will be tough for her party, and that she can’t be expected to have cleaned up the mess after just five months. Uncertain is the extent to which Badenoch is looking to convey this to the public, or indeed her own party, with hundreds, potentially up to or over 500, Conservative losses to be expected. Though, it would be a shock for the Conservatives not to win the most seats.

The Labour Party are less concerned about 2025 local election results, given there is a comparatively lower base from them to fall, winning just 336 out of 1,641 in the 2021 local elections. In fact, fewer councillors than MPs won in 2024 with only 650 seats up for grabs. That being said, while 2021 was a year of poor polling for Labour, the party naturally performs poorly in County Council election years due to demography of County-level authorities. That being said, Labour are nervous about the both rightward and leftward-facing threats, but appear to be more cautious about losses to Reform than any other party, with perhaps 100 Labour losses expected. Needing to balance both sides of their voter base, Labour will get some insight into how well they are balancing pressure from the political right and political left.

The Liberal Democrats and Reform will both look to make substantial gains in these local elections, and though they will both be fighting for second place, it is Reform who are set to take the spotlight. A narrative that Reform have surged and “won” these elections, even if they do not have the highest number of seats, will not be surprising. The Liberal Democrats, as in the General Election, will look to silently make substantial gains in these elections.

Elected Mayors

In what could be a darker picture for Labour and Keir Starmer, four combined authority mayoralties and two metropolitan borough mayors will be elected on Thursday. For two of these, Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire, this will be an inaugural election, with Reform looking all but certain winners in Greater Lincolnshire with their candidate and former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns, while In Hull and East Yorkshire, a strong local Liberal Democrat presence looks to limit the Labour vote and potentially also squeeze Reform to the victory there.

The West of England Combined Authority (WECA) is where Labour could lose an existing mayoralty to the Green Party, which would, unequivocally, be their most substantial election win since Caroline Lucas was elected as the first Green MP in 2010. Labour nevertheless will give what they can to the seat, but the typical Liberal Democrat vote in Bath, North East Somerset and South Gloucestershire will likely be the deciding factor in this election.

In Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, where incumbent Labour mayor Nik Johnson is standing down, Labour will be interested in understanding how an election which takes place under First Past the Post will unfold in this seat. Labour won this mayoralty with Liberal Democrat second preferences in 2021, and will hope that these second preferences transfer into votes this time around. Labour candidate Anna Smith lost out in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough on the Police and Crime Commissioner election last year, so will hope for higher turnout in the area compared to last year, as well as lent Liberal Democrat support, to get her over the line.

Labour are also fearful of losing the Doncaster elected mayor in Ed Miliband’s home patch, as well as the local authority. English mayoralties are proving important in developing a strong personal and regional brand, with mayors often outperforming the national party. Labour, who currently hold almost all elected mayoralties in the country, will therefore fear the personal and local brands that could develop from non-Labour mayors.

Runcorn & Helsby by-election

The Runcorn & Helsby by-election will take place this Thursday, too. In what has become a two-horse race between Labour and Reform, Labour are using the NHS as the key dividing tool in this election, arguing that a Reform MP would be no advocate for the NHS, or it remaining as free at the point of use.

The Runcorn & Helsby by-election with a Reform win will likely control the narrative regardless of other results. A Labour victory, however, will delegate this narrative to mayoralties and local authorities.

Lowick will be watching these results closely, its impact and influence on national politics and assess what this might signal for elections yet to come.